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| Source: Campoantimperialista |
| Written by Leonardo Mazzei |
| Sunday, November 28, 2010 15:35 |
 What possible outlets for the political crisis Italian? two weeks-ending political crisis of the Berlusconi government was put in the freezer for a bipartisan move of the President of the Republic. The freeze was justified by the need to adopt the so-called "Law of stability", but in fact the main goals of traccheggiare quirinalizio are quite different. In this way, Napolitano - a living proof of the well-known law that every president of the republic can always do to regret (and they will!) Its predecessors - it has managed to please both Berlusconi's party, as the front and heterogeneous is trying to unseat the knight, and in particular its component third-monopolist. The latter had a good month or so available to develop their designs, while the head of government had the gift of being able to fix the date of the vote on the trust inherent to December 14, coincidentally the day that is provided the Constitutional Court ruling on "legal impediment". Obviously, that day will be "impeded" in their present Berlusconi's lawyers, Nicolo Ghedini and Piero Longo, both engaged in a crucial parliamentary vote of confidence. Will take advantage of these well-known shyster nice opportunity given him by former "foreign minister" of the Communist Party? Certainly not if they have sufficient safeguards on decisions of the Consulta, certainly yes, otherwise. But the freeze has another reason for being: all the protagonists of this unfortunate political season do not yet know exactly how to get on. Berlusconi is at sunset, but not seen sunrises. We are therefore right in the heart of a profound crisis the outcome still uncertain. A crisis that do not play only in the palaces of the policy, which he sees as the top riders in the leading exponents of Italian capitalism (just think of the daily operations of Marcegaglia, Montezemolo and Marchionne), and reappeared on the scene a shot - for now timid and insufficient, but still significant - of social conflict. The scenario is the backdrop to all this is that the economic crisis, and in particular the recurrence as the central node of the "sovereign debt". After Ireland, Greece touched that they must care horse imposed by the European Union. And while the attack is already under way to Portugal, the question is: when will the second round of the I (like Italy) PIIGS so-called? ********** Possible outlets for this situation should therefore be identified in the light of all these factors. Meanwhile, however, from two points: the irreversible crisis of Berlusconi (understood here in the strict sense, but in a broader sense, as the overall politico-cultural phenomenon, the speech is necessarily more complex), and the extreme unlikelihood that a Berlusconi dressed as Dorothy (see article in the October 4 ) accept the order to negotiate the terms of his surrender. On the first point there is little to add to what has been written on many occasions: the parable of Scrooge of Arcore is now finished. Only fools could not see, a year ago, the gradual fall (of credibility, clarity, leadership skills) the Head of Government. What then was already visible to those who did not stop at appearances, has now become so obvious as to be recognized by all. The point is, however, another, the fact that the crisis of credibility not only invests the government, but also all the parliamentary opposition, Berlusconi still leaves some chance . The question then is to understand how if want to play. And here we come to the second point. The political processes are often full of the most diverse factors. Of course, ultimately, they depend mainly than economic. But "ultimately" does not mean mechanically. If not we already established a government at Palazzo Chigi Dragons, supported by a large parliamentary majority. A government delegate to pass a massive maneuver tears and blood, but more "presentable" in Italy and abroad. It is no secret that this is the dream and the draft of the ruling oligarchies, and it is likely that "ultimately" it ends up true. But try to understand what will be the type and duration of the journey between now and the end point is likely this issue far from irrelevant. In theory, in the light of the current parliamentary factions, There are at least four possibilities: 1) Berlusconi gets too narrow a confidence in the House and continues to carry on (the famous "pull a living" memory of Andreotti). 2) The government loses a confidence vote in the Senate, but not in the House (the mouth early elections almost certain). 3) Berlusconi is discouraged by both houses of parliament, paving the way for a possible turnaround. 4) In addition to the various scenarios described above, opens a crisis that saw the pilot re-entry in the majority of Finian and (possibly variable) maybe UDC. In summary, the chances are "pulling a living," the elections, the reversal and a new edition of "House of Liberty." Obviously each of these theoretical possibilities includes within it a very wide range of variables. You can "pull a living" because there is no other option, or for future developments. You can go to elections with the current government, or another established specifically to manage them. One can imagine a tight turnaround (Model 1994/1995) or a larger one when the PDL really collapses. So how could we have a turnaround mainly aimed to approve a new electoral law (assuming that it is losing share), or a company and therefore motivated by the emergence "of the legislature." We could continue, but this is a sport that willingly leave to those who, having to fill the pages of daily newspapers of domestic politics, it ends up also credited the most extravagant hypothesis, usually intended to last for the space of a morning. ********** In recent days is an extraordinary act forcing face reversals, in particular of the third-monopolist (Finian, UDC, Montezemolo), which, practically all 'in unison with the president of Confindustria, claiming two seemingly contradictory things: that Berlusconi go away, they are prevented early elections. Since the strength of this block can not be underestimated in any way, it is clear that we must exclude the hypothesis No. 4, that of a Berlusconi. They have stalled for a long time, demonstrating their difficulties, but could hardly agree to leave once the Knight in the saddle. writer (at the risk of being blatantly contradicted by the facts) does not believe that the recruitment drive under way on both sides of parliament can have decisive successes either in one way or another, in view of 14 December. It follows that the hypothesis No. 1 ("pull a living" by a narrow majority) should be considered highly unlikely, due to the absence of that majority in the House. then remain in the field hypothesis 2 (elections) and 3 (reversal). Just because it is expected that the ongoing recruitment drive, as aggressive, they will produce only small and decisive moves, it is clear that December 14th will not be the first date of reversal. The turnaround may know this and will play their cards later, a crisis of government formally opened. And 'know, for example, that there is a pattuglietta of senators who are gathering about Pisanu, ready to break with the PDL at the right time, maybe if Napolitano decides to ask to carry out "exploratory" its former interior minister. Currently however, the project turnaround appears to be very weak: it springs from a narrow majority in numbers, politically very heterogeneous, subject to the continuous attack on the face of Berlusconi's lack of "electoral legitimacy." A real turnaround could be achieved only if a significant erosion of the PDL, with the separation of components well beyond those images today. E 'can be determined that such a scenario? Yes, but only if the card was played extreme dramatization of the financial situation. One possibility not excluded, but has many drawbacks. If a strictly financial recognize the emergency power it can even end up on the political front would have to acknowledge what has always denied, and the social make clear the prospect of a violent attack on the living conditions of the working classes, perhaps turning the dust of class conflict. To these observations, one can certainly argue that the emergency will sooner or later have to acknowledge and that - from the standpoint of the ruling classes - a government 's "emergency" may also be the best solution to prevent, reduce and eventually suppress the conflict social. These are the thoughts - we can be sure - that make the situation far from certain on the top floors of the buildings and not just policy. E 'uncertainty that has dragged on for months and that unbelievably does not have an outlet sure. For this reason, the lack of projects really strong, the weakness of those who should direct them to the fragility of the political actors in the field (think of "Finian" but not only), the most likely hypothesis is that the elections anticipated in early 2011. ********** In early August, after the expulsion of the PDL Fini, writing that had come " Current of the Dead." Well, the tactics exasperated the reverse continues, we look forward to these months, they tell us exactly that: the time of the Dead is certainly not over, the Italian ruling classes (not just political ones) come completely unprepared to redde rationem of an economic crisis that is intertwined with the political and institutional. The same early elections - if you will - will submit all unresolved issues to date of what will be the configuration of the grid which is any opposition to Berlusconi? Who will be the candidate for prime minister? How can there be a third pole of the bipolar current law? Unresolved issues that contribute to procrastination of these weeks, however, nodes that can not be delayed much longer. For now we are propaganda. Berlusconi said yesterday that "if we went to the election defeat them all," adding that those who fail to vote confidence, "will assume responsibility for having betrayed the voters and will be marked for life by the brand of treason and disloyalty. " A little 'comic response Fini, after ensuring that however you will not go to elections, said: "The first betrayal is by those that have always defined the PDL as a party and plural mass of love" . This phraseology is a bit 'absurd and bully, if one side is the living proof of the baseness reached from Italian politics, says the one thing there: the power struggle between the two blocks systemic (for simplification, "Berlusconi" el " antiberlusconiano ") is projected to go no holds barred. If this happens, despite the convergence substantial of the two blocks above the key points of economic policy, but also and especially for the very special characteristics of Silvio Berlusconi. He arrived at sunset, but it is said that he is still realized, nor, probably, his closest associates will be bothered to explain it without too much pretense. Otherwise, he would certainly have sought an honorable exit from the scene, accompanied by a secure safe passage in the courts. He did not, instead getting ready for a final electoral battle, the only card that still remains (if you wish to exclude the output stage), but hardly an asset at less than colossal mistakes by opponents. Of course, nobody can exclude that the agreement will be sought in extremis by Berlusconi embarrassed by the formal opening of the crisis of governance, but we can say now is that that scenario seems quite unlikely. We therefore announce ********** weeks still confused with the background, the prospect of early elections, perhaps just as confused. We arrived in the meantime, the second attack I (like Italy) of PIIGS? E 'this is the decisive variable. And that is what the two blocks in the fight speak the same language and use the same silence. Orders for both the EU and the ECB is no dogma to be met, node for both the public debt will be addressed (discussed, not resolved it is clearly impossible) with a policy of heavy sacrifices. E 'on these issues, Europe and the debt, that a new opposition should begin to take shape. Against Berlusconi and against the blockade that will ferry the country to the Government of 3M (Marchionne, Marcegaglia, Montezemolo). leave the European Union, national sovereignty and regain the monetary target is now a mature, who by chance is making inroads in popular movements that oppose the European policies in the countries most affected so far (Greece, Ireland, Portugal). The Union's crisis is so great that even a few days ago, Merkel has spoken explicitly of the fact that some countries will leave the euro and declare bankruptcy, the so-called default . What is the point in these conditions, clinging to Europe, the euro, to the dictates of the ECB? The only reason to do this is that the Italian ruling class are simply terrified by the fact that the policy back to have some say in economic decisions. And 'the terror of democracy, the nightmare that people can repossess of some power. And that, in so doing, they understand the urgent need to discard the entire ruling class, to liquidate the financial oligarchies and start thinking about economy addressed to the satisfaction of people's interests. How would that time, we're all in this together. This applies to the question of Europe, anti-democratic and oligarchic structure that serves only the interests of lorsignori, but it is also true with regard to the crucial node of the public debt. How can we not understand that the current management of public debt is the main tool to download the costs of the crisis on working class? How can we not understand that this sword of Damocles, that justifies every government crap regardless of who governs, it is no longer tolerable? Put on the agenda the issue of zeroing of the public debt is indeed increasingly urgent. But not expect that this can be done by any of the policy components that make up the two blocks involved in the current power struggle. The objective of this struggle is not only political power but also the positioning of various segments of the dominant bloc in the moment you lay choices really terrible. If we do not want the game remains in the hands of such only, it is therefore a qualitative leap towards the construction of a new opposition to an alternative anti-capitalist. A quantum leap in the struggle, in opposition to the entire current political system, the identification of priorities for a stage of having the heart to leave the EU and the goal of zeroing public debt. E 'asking too much? Perhaps, but there are alternatives to the social massacre at the door, regardless of the policy scenarios on which we focused in this article. Scenarios that in any case we speak of an entire political class subservient to economic power. A political class to send home. Whole. |
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